Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 236.174686 287.017611 349.851104 434.542221 547.810294 6.972170e+02 9.147262e+02
2025-08-03 177.628259 235.964077 317.386717 443.767653 643.797318 9.654358e+02 1.563473e+03
2025-08-10 143.451004 202.396743 291.934503 446.076732 724.374098 1.253297e+03 2.489636e+03
2025-08-17 119.158578 175.554386 266.694145 436.479146 777.092323 1.523799e+03 3.687501e+03
2025-08-24 101.672311 154.922184 245.297372 424.848895 818.773263 1.800463e+03 5.313613e+03
2025-08-31 88.439591 138.488505 226.915740 412.381271 852.293782 2.085346e+03 7.537760e+03
2025-09-07 84.069963 136.214379 233.154478 451.319234 1026.271289 2.933219e+03 1.477678e+04
2025-09-14 76.756309 127.347275 224.828457 455.662979 1114.011212 3.611442e+03 2.476497e+04
2025-09-21 71.718660 121.849240 222.010804 472.023159 1248.003088 4.676604e+03 4.834373e+04
2025-09-28 65.865594 113.908268 212.559766 468.987426 1320.136087 5.595130e+03 8.712464e+04
2025-10-05 64.255974 114.054261 220.539433 514.843817 1600.159445 8.362635e+03 3.154163e+05
2025-10-12 62.113801 112.774132 225.032022 552.931817 1887.890800 1.226744e+04 1.802661e+06
2025-10-19 59.353509 110.040040 226.158389 583.749139 2190.269102 1.810232e+04 5.201983e+07
2025-10-26 56.130650 105.892473 223.126860 600.907300 2453.845633 2.572818e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 52.693548 100.826383 216.854953 605.175998 2659.702422 3.497155e+04 NaN
2025-11-09 48.920519 94.557050 206.393878 591.135897 2745.284470 4.338893e+04 NaN
2025-11-16 45.454034 88.620358 195.913546 573.977615 2800.061639 5.276420e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 42.321156 83.138977 185.865170 555.609039 2834.094966 6.330954e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 41.964987 84.145214 193.964138 613.224200 3557.979844 1.392760e+05 NaN
2025-12-07 40.031714 81.141017 190.121735 619.690469 3868.516536 2.208806e+05 NaN
2025-12-14 38.737020 79.560256 190.211719 644.110771 4421.152759 4.496491e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 36.807758 76.205921 184.451320 639.571436 4665.061399 7.367009e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 36.691949 77.412869 192.946486 708.523272 6027.030314 4.372344e+06 NaN